In the early days of airplanes, crash rates and pilot casualty rates were alarmingly high, ranging roughly from 2% to 4% fatalities annually among licensed pilots in countries like France and the UK between 1909 and 1913. Reliable data is scarce due to lack of standardized record-keeping, regulations, and varied aircraft standards during 1903–1913. However, available licensing records and a crowdsourced accident database allow estimations for this period.
Between 1909 and 1913, France and the UK began issuing numbered pilot licenses, enabling rough measurement of pilot population against recorded crashes and fatalities. Data from the ASN Wikibase, a crowdsourced aircraft accident collection managed by the Flight Safety Foundation, provides insight into early aviation incidents. Despite some missing reports, the database is considered fairly complete for pre-World War I aviation.
| Year | Licenses | Crashes | Fatalities | Crash/License Ratio | Fatality/License Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1909 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 0.176 | 0.176 |
| 1910 | 344 | 14 | 9 | 0.041 | 0.026 |
| 1911 | 705 | 27 | 25 | 0.038 | 0.035 |
| 1912 | 1194 | 31 | 28 | 0.026 | 0.023 |
| 1913 | 1576 | 37 | 39 | 0.023 | 0.025 |
Early in the decade, fatality ratios were very high, with about 17.6% of licensed pilots perishing in crashes in 1909. This rate drops over subsequent years but remains significant, between 2%–4% annually. Similarly, in the UK from 1910 to 1913, fatality ratios decreased from approximately 10.5% to about 1.9%, matching the French trend.
| Year | Licenses | Crashes | Fatalities | Crash/License Ratio | Fatality/License Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1910 | 38 | 8 | 4 | 0.211 | 0.105 |
| 1911 | 168 | 9 | 5 | 0.053 | 0.030 |
| 1912 | 382 | 16 | 16 | 0.041 | 0.041 |
| 1913 | 719 | 21 | 14 | 0.029 | 0.019 |
The lack of unified regulation and standardized pilot training contributed greatly to the inconsistency and high risks. The environment was dangerous; aircraft were fragile, and pilots had limited experience and equipment. Some pilots flew extensively, others sparingly, influencing individual risk profiles.
One landmark incident was the first fatal airplane crash on September 17, 1908, involving Orville Wright. The crash killed Lieutenant Thomas Selfridge, the first recorded aviation fatality. The event highlighted the risks inherent in early flight and became a catalyst for safety improvements.
The Wright brothers responded by redesigning propellers and adding safety features like seat belts. Despite public concern, aviation development continued, with lessons from accidents driving progress.
To contextualize these fatality rates, modern standards offer a comparison. NASA’s requirements for Commercial Crew Transportation missions specify a loss of crew (LOC) probability no greater than 1 in 270 over seven months, about 0.4% risk. Early aviators faced risks roughly ten times higher annually.
Over multiple years, the fatality risk compounded dramatically, comparable to a hazardous game of chance. Early pilots accepted significant personal risk to pioneer aviation.
Key points to note:
- Pilot fatality rates in early powered flight ranged from 2% to 4% annually for licensed pilots in France and the UK (1909–1913).
- Data is derived from pilot license counts and recorded crashes compiled in specialized databases.
- The first fatal airplane crash occurred in 1908, killing Lieutenant Selfridge and demonstrating aviation’s hazards early on.
- Safety improvements followed catastrophic incidents, gradually reducing risks over time.
- Modern aviation has dramatically lower fatality rates; early aviation risks were about an order of magnitude higher than today’s astronaut safety standards.
